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Reasoning about Uncertainty (The MIT Press)

The MIT Press ~ The MIT Press has been a leader in open access book publishing for two decades beginning in 1995 with the publication of William Mitchells City of Bits which appeared simultaneously in print and in a dynamic open web support a variety of open access funding models for select books including monographs trade books and textbooks

Uncertainty Wikipedia ~ Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown applies to predictions of future events to physical measurements that are already made or to the unknown Uncertainty arises in partially observable andor stochastic environments as well as due to ignorance indolence or both It arises in any number of fields including insurance philosophy physics

Josh Tenenbaums home page MIT ~ Representative reading and talks Humanlevel concept learning through probabilistic program B Salakhutdinov R and Tenenbaum J B 2015Science 3506266 13321338 doi 1011263050 visual turing tests omniglot data set Bayesian program learning code Computational rationality A converging paradigm for intelligence in brains minds and machines

Commonsense Reasoning ~ Thirteenth International Symposium on Commonsense Reasoning Commonsense2017 We invite you to participate in Commonsense2017 to be held at the University College London November 68 2017

Abductive reasoning Wikipedia ~ Abductive reasoning also called abduction abductive inference or retroduction is a form of logical inference which starts with an observation or set of observations then seeks to find the simplest and most likely explanation for the observations This process unlike deductive reasoning yields a plausible conclusion but does not positively verify it

In two minds dualprocess accounts of reasoning ~ Very strong instructional emphasis on logical necessity will reduce although not eliminate belief bias whereas relaxation of deductive reasoning instructions can have the opposite effect The assumption is that System 2 thinking is both volitional and responsive to verbal instructions whereas System 1 thinking is not

Coping with Uncertainty A Naturalistic DecisionMaking ~ This paper is concerned with three questions How do decision makers conceptualize uncertainty How do decision makers cope with uncertainty Are there systematic relationships between different conceptualizations of uncertainty and different methods of coping

Theory of mind broad and narrow Reasoning about social ~ SOCIAL NEUROSCIENCE 2006 1 3 4 196 219 Theory of mind broad and narrow Reasoning about social exchange engages ToM areas precautionary reasoning does not Elsa Ermer Scott A Guerin Leda Cosmides John Tooby and Michael B Miller University of California Santa Barbara CA USA BaronCohen 1995 proposed that the theory of mind ToM inference system evolved to promote strategic

Biases and fallacies The role of motivated irrationality ~ COGENCY Vol 3 N0 1 107126 Winter 2011 ISSN 07188285 Biases and fallacies The role of motivated irrationality in fallacious reasoning Sesgos y falacias El rol de la irracionalidad motivada en el razonamiento falaz Vasco Correia Institute for the Philosophy of Language New University of Lisbon Lisboa Portugal vascosaragoca Received 20122010 Accepted 25052011

JUDEA PEARLS HOMEPAGE UCLA ~ Welcome to my homepage To find out what I am up to new submissions working papers adventures and introspections click here For discussions and disputations concerning controversial topics read the Causality Blog To view the slides of my tutorial at the Joint Statistical Meetings JSM16 Chicago IL August 1 2016 click or

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